作者:宗侯通 来源:原创 时间:2026-08-26 阅读:62839 次

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一 |     The following is a transcript of an interview with former Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan, a Republican, that aired on "Face the Nation" on September 3, 2023.


ROBERT COSTA: We're joined now by the former governor of Maryland, Larry Hogan. Governor, thank you for being here. We appreciate it. Thanks. FORMER MARYLAND GOVERNOR LARRY HOGAN: Thanks for having me.      ROBERT COSTA: Last time, we sat down for a conversation for Face the Nation, it was back in March. And you told us you were not going to seek the Republican presidential nomination, in part because you believed that the field needed to be small in order for another Republican to have a chance to beat former president Donald Trump. Now, months later, do you believe the GOP field as is, is too big?HOGAN: Oh, absolutely. I believe it now more than I did back in March. And as you know, that's why I made the decision. I didn't want to see a repeat of 2016. I didn't want to see this multi-car pileup where the 50% of the Republican primary voters that don't want Donald Trump are divided among the 11 people. And that's exactly what I was afraid of, is what's happening. I think it's a real problem. And I think, you know, we now know that it's a problem. And I think we've got to start thinking about trying to show some leadership and taking some action to change that.                 ROBERT COSTA: So what do you mean by that? Taking leadership? Taking action? It's September, it's not March. It's not July, it's not August, it's September, Trump is dominating the polls. You have some people on the side of the debate stage who are polling in the single digits, should they get out?HOGAN: Look, I think there's too many people in the field, you should not be in the race. If you're- if you don't make the debate stage, you likely should consider getting out. If you're on the debate stage, and you're willing to stand up and challenge the leader that's at 50%, if you're unwilling to challenge Donald Trump, you should get off the stage. You know, Ramaswamy, for example, is up there being a cheerleader and a fill-in for Trump. He shouldn't be running for president, he should, you know, he obviously is trying to apply for a job for Trump. But if you're in there running for vice president, or you're trying to be a cabinet secretary, or you're trying to become famous, or write a book or get on television, you should get the heck out of the race. We need to narrow it down to find a leader who can get the Republican Party back on the right track. And that could get us back to winning elections. Again, it's not going to happen with 11 people in the race. ROBERT COSTA: Who specifically? Former congressman Will Hurd didn't make the debate stage should he get out? HOGAN: You know, Will is a great friend. I have tremendous admiration for him. I agree with him on so many issues, but he's not going to be president. And he didn't make the debate stage. And I think he contributes a lot to the discussion. He and I see a lot of things eye to eye,  but yeah, I don't think that at this point he should be in the race. But I don't want to go through the list of which one? Which one, should we get out and get in the process of the decision, they have to make--                       ROBERT COSTA: -- but time is of the essence, Governor. HOGAN: What I'm- I'm having conversations, most of these folks are friends of mine. I'm talking with other leaders in the party, they share this concern, this issue that you're getting to. And I think we're going have to continue to have those discussions and try to get people to- but I'm giving private advice to many of the people running. I think other leaders are going to come together and we're going to have to figure out how can we convince people to put aside their own egos and their own goals to just make sure we do the right thing for the country in the party. ROBERT COSTA: How do you force that conversation? It's a difficult one. I saw in politics for years, most politicians wake up, they look in the mirror, they see a future president. It's tough to have that kind of conversation.HOGAN: It's very, very tough, which is why it hasn't happened yet. But I'm holding out hope that we'll- we'll get this figured out. And you know, my total focus at this point is trying to make sure we can get a challenger that's going to win this nomination. That's not Donald Trump that can get us back to winning elections again and to win the race in November.ROBERT COSTA: You said you were going to talk to your friends in the traditional Republican wing of the GOP, a party still dominated by Trump. How would you describe the level of concern? Is it quiet concern twiddling our thumbs right now among donors and traditional Republicans? Or is there a real alarm, that it's September and Trump's dominating?HOGAN: I think there's a real alarm. And it's becoming more and more real. I mean, people were somewhat hopeful that we would be in a different place by now. And now they're starting to come to the realization that, hey, this is- we might actually have Donald Trump as the nominee, and Joe Biden as the nominee. And this is something that 70% of the people in America do not want. They do not want Donald Trump or Joe Biden, they don't want a rematch. And they don't think these are the two best choices to be running in the race.ROBERT COSTA: What about a late entry from Governor Brian Kemp of Georgia? Or Governor Glen Youngkin of Virginia? It may not be possible to get on the ballot in Iowa and South Carolina in those early states. But could you see a late entry trying to make a play for the convention?                      HOGAN: Well, it seems like the opposite of what I've been saying. You know, we've got eleven people in the race. We have six of my former gubernatorial colleagues already in the race. I'm not sure whether one or two more is going to fix the problem. I also just don't think it's going to happen. I mean, they're both great governors. I campaigned and helped both of them. But October 15 is the deadline and they all just talk about somebody's going to get in at the end of the year or next year. That's not going to happen. It's- it's six weeks away.ROBERT COSTA: You just said that many voters across this country don't want President Biden as the Democratic nominee and don't want former President Trump as the Republican nominee. And as you navigate the political scene, you have been serving as the honorary co-chairman of this group, No Labels, which is considering publicly a possible independent or third party ticket that would bring together a Republican and a Democrat to offer an alternative presidential ticket. So many Democrats say that if this was happen, if this was put together early next year, it would be a spoiler for President Biden and it would effectively help elect Trump, should he be the nominee.HOGAN: I'm not sure where they come up with that. I think that all started when there was a lot of talk about a Democrat heading up this ticket and they didn't want a Democrat splitting up the Democratic vote. There was talking- there was a lot of talk-- ROBERT COSTA: Right, because there's been talk about Senator Joe Manchin being atop the ticket. HOGAN: And that- that's really what set them off in a panic, they thought that he was only going to draw away from President Biden. But the Biden team ought to be concerned right now; they have a Green Party candidate that's drawing three or four percent all away from Biden and then talk about a spoiler. No Labels is not an effort to try to help Donald Trump and to be a spoiler for Joe Biden, I don't think there's a soul in this organization that's- that's trying to promote Donald Trump. And if we don't get into the process, and how and why. Basically, you got to figure out why are we in this situation? We're in this situation because we have two potential terrible nominees of the two major parties that 70% of people in America don't want. That's what No Labels is about. It's a citizen saying, maybe we have to try something else. ROBERT COSTA: Would that be a spoiler? To your point you just made, does that mean a Republican like yourself, in your mold, perhaps or even you has to be at the top of the No Labels ticket, should there be a No Labels ticket?HOGAN: I think we should only put together a ticket in the event that it's Trump and Biden. And I'm still, again, still trying to work to make sure we can get a good Republican nominee. And this doesn't- it's no longer necessary. But it has to be a good ticket that can actually win, you know, I would only be in it to win it. Nobody's trying to spoil anything. This is about actually receiving a majority of the votes. And I would say the last time we had somewhat of a successful third party run, it was Ross Perot, who dropped out of the race and had all kinds of problems and came back in and still was at about 20%. But he was a Republican who ran as an independent and took, you know, most people would argue, I think he drew from both sides. But it didn't, you know, hurt the Democrat, it hurt the Republican.                      ROBERT COSTA: And the Ross Perot experience in 1992, he gets about 19% of the popular vote, but it's very difficult to win the White House in a system that's the electoral college.HOGAN: It's very true. It's, you know, it's something that's never really happened. I mean, but we're at a point where we've never been in America. So we just don't know. And you know, that things change, we have eight months to figure this out. It's going to be after Super Tuesday, and sometime in the spring, where, you know, maybe this in case of emergency break glass scenario takes place. And, you know, I hate everybody- insiders in Washington and this will never happen, this is how it's gonna affect. We don't know who we're going to be as a country. We don't know who the potential candidates might be. But it very well may be the first time in our history where the American public is really hungry for something like this.ROBERT COSTA: You just used the phrase "insiders in Washington," if people are frustrated with the Democrats and Republicans, maybe they are looking for an alternative, but No Labels, the group you're the honorary co-chairman of, has not released its list of donors. They're under the cloud of the election law where they can not be disclosed to the public. Do you believe No Labels now or at some point in the future is going to have to offer Americans clarity about who's spending money on No Labels in order to win the public's trust, if they want to move forward? HOGAN: Sure. Well, you know, it's a tax exempt, you know, grassroots citizen organization, just like thousands of others and that's just what the rules are. They're not a political party, they- they don't have a candidacy they're behind. They're not backing anyone. If in fact, that became a campaign, they obviously would have to follow all the same rules that all the rest of the campaigns do. But right now, there's just an awful lot of attacks and criticism, because they're really worried that this- this kind of citizen uprising is gaining a lot of traction. And they're really concerned about the- the two weak nominees that they might be faced with.ROBERT COSTA: Well, to your point, there's concern, especially among allies of the White House, that a Democratic independent ticket would pull from Biden. But let's- let's be real, if Trump is going to end up- looks like the nominee, come January and February of next year, are you Larry Hogan, open to being atop a No Labels ticket as a Republican type candidate with No Labels?HOGAN: It's not something I'm pursuing.ROBERT COSTA: I know it's not- we know you're not pursuing it. Is it- is it at least an open door?                      HOGAN: I'm hoping we don't get to that point. I have not closed the door to that. If I believe that we can actually win the race. We have a strong ticket- that those two major candidates are weak- we might have to try to pull off something that's never been done, which is sort of what I did in Maryland.ROBERT COSTA: And it's really going to be a response to Trump's place in the presidential race. And he's now facing four active criminal indictments, trials colliding with the primary schedule.HOGAN: But look, we've got two guys at 80 or around 80. The current President has two different independent counsels investigating multiple different things, problems with his son. We've got the former President, who is running this whole grievance effort- getting- still debating the results of the last election and has four different indictments and potentially 90 some charges against them. I mean, if ever, there was a time to say, maybe we need to have a choice C, it might be 2024.ROBERT COSTA: So if not Hogan, as a Republican type atop a No Labels ticket, who else is on your radar as someone who could fill that gap?HOGAN: You know, it's got to be somebody that's- that's truly- this group is truly bipartisan, and it's got to be somebody that can reach across the aisle to get things done. It's got to be somebody that's a common sense leader that's willing to work with people that they don't always agree with in order to accomplish things. And, you know, I would say we've proven that in the bluest state in America with a 70% legislature. We got a heck of a lot done and left with huge, you know, approval numbers among Democrats, independents and Republicans. Charlie Baker did this in Massachusetts, Phil Scott did it in Vermont. You know, there are a number of people- it's not going to happen by you know, a MAGA Republican or a far left Democrat. That's not- not- not what this group is looking for.ROBERT COSTA: Senator Manchin, you've worked with him across the aisle on different political issues, different policy issues. He now seems to be exploring, based on a Wall Street Journal report, his own path maybe separate from No Labels. Will that complicate what you're thinking about with No Labels?HOGAN: Well, I have a lot of respect for Joe Manchin, and he's been very involved in this organization for many, many years, much longer than myself. I don't know what his plans are. I don't think he knows what his plans are. He's still trying to figure that out. But, you know, when I started a group called An America United, we had 2,000 People at an event in the fall with, you know, huge crowd, we raised about 1.2 million. He's now starting a thing called America Together, which sounds similar to the effort, but I'm not sure what the, you know, the concept of saying we have to try to get- bring people together. I think Joe Manchin and I agree on. That the two parties are not, are not really the way they used to be. And they're not- the divisiveness, dysfunction, the anger, the toxic politics is something Joe Manchin is fed up with. And so am I.                      ROBERT COSTA: And final thing, we know you're not pursuing the No Labels ticket at this point. It's just all wait and see, exploring options in a very almost informal way, though No Labels is doing some due diligence on the process. Do you believe there's actually going to be a No Labels ticket or not next year?HOGAN: I think there's a good likelihood that there- there could be. I don't know the odds. And there's a lot of things that have to happen. Again, I'm still hopeful that I don't- I'm not sure sitting here today that Donald Trump and Joe Biden are the two nominees of the major parties or whether this ever lifts off the ground. But if in fact, that's the case, I do believe that this group has a chance to get access to the ballot in all 50 states and if they put together you know, a- a really great ticket and ran a perfect campaign, that they would actually have a shot to be not just a spoiler, but to be in it to win it.ROBERT COSTA: Former Governor Larry Hogan of Maryland, we appreciate you coming by Face the Nation, and we'll be right back.                                 

二 |     

过去一段时间,来自越南的新闻让人应接不暇。

不过大家关注的多是河内政坛迷局,却忽视了另一个影响深远的消息——越南政府计划在2030年之前修建连接首都河内与中国的高速铁路。

其实有关越南“南北高铁”的消息很早就有了,为此还曾发生过一段阮富仲与阮晋勇斗法的精彩故事。

三 |


越南总理阮晋勇与安倍

2006年,时任越南总理阮晋勇在访问日本期间收到了一个“大礼包”,日本政府承诺提供开发援助,支援越南兴建高铁。

越南的国土呈长条形,全国人口和城市群主要分布在北部的红河三角洲和南部的湄公河三角洲,分别以河内和胡志明市为中心,确实非常需要一条南北高速动脉。

兴奋之余,阮晋勇当即代表越南和日本签署了一份关于越南高铁和北南高速公路工程的谅解备忘录。

然而回国之后,这份谅解备忘录却引起激烈争议。

四 |


按照越南法律的规定,预算超过19亿美元的所有项目须获得国会批准,经过一个月的审议,越南国会于2010年6月19日正式否决了政府提出的高铁计划。

五 |


国会方面主要给出了两点反驳意见:其一是高铁建设成本预计达560亿美元,过于昂贵;其二是票价太高,普通人坐不起,且当时有70%的越南人住在农村,因此“提案在经济上不健全”。

六 |


就这样,让日本产业界极度兴奋的“越南南北高铁案”遭到搁置,而主导这一切的正是现任越共一把手、时任国会主席阮富仲。

应用日本新干线技术的台湾高铁700T型列车,安倍和阮晋勇计划把日本新干线应用到越南南北高铁中。

七 |


十几年倏忽而过。

八 |


2023年越南的人均GDP达到了4200美元,城市化率达到41%,基本相当于中国2008~2010年间的水平。

记忆力好的朋友会有印象,2008~2010年间也正是中国高铁刚刚开通的时候。

2024年4月9日,越南交通部发布了一则声明,称正计划修建两条高铁,其中一条从河内延伸至与中国广西接壤的谅山省,另一条连接河内与云南接壤的老街省,途经港口城市海防和下龙湾所在的广宁省。

九 |


越方表示这是红河三角洲发展战略的一部分,旨在加强交通基础设施、减少拥堵并促进经济增长。

消息一经公布,各界纷纷猜测曾经轰动一时的越南南北高铁计划已再度出炉,北部的两条高铁将是这一宏伟目标的第一步。

十 |


细心的朋友还发现,早在去年12月中方领导人访问越南期间,双方就已经签署了包括铁路在内的数十项合作协议。

而在越南交通部公布正式声明的前一天,越南国会主席王廷惠在北京密集会见了中国铁路公司的高管,分别来自中国铁道建筑集团、中国交通建设集团以及中国中车。

越南国会主席王廷惠会见中国铁道建筑集团高管,2024年4月8日。

十一 |


越南方面之所以对于南北高铁感到着急,一个很重要的原因是泛亚高铁“中线”进展神速,已经开始对中南半岛的地缘政治和地缘经济产生影响。

泛亚铁路(东南亚段)又称昆明-新加坡铁路,是链接中国、中南半岛、马来半岛和新加坡之间的铁路网。

这一概念最早由马来西亚首相马哈蒂尔·穆罕默德在1995年12月的东盟第五届首脑会议上提议,之后陆续得到有关国家的赞同。

2013年以来,随着中国高铁技术实现跨越式突破,中方成为泛亚铁路的主要推动者。

按照规划,泛亚铁路以云南省会昆明为枢纽,分东、中、西三条线路:

西线经大理、瑞丽进入缅甸境内,连接缅甸首都内比都和第一大城市仰光,目前昆明至大理段已经开通,大理至瑞丽段预计2025年通车,不过联通缅甸的计划因其陷入内乱而变得遥遥无期。

中线的北段已经通车,即中老铁路,南段正紧锣密鼓建设中,后面详细介绍。

东线的主体即越南南北高铁,规划中把柬埔寨也一并纳入了进来,最终向西汇聚到中南半岛第一大城市——泰国首都曼谷。


下面让我们把目光投向泛亚铁路中线。

2021年12月3日,中老铁路在经历五年建设后正式开通,运营初期由老中铁路公司委托中国铁路昆明局集团运营维护。

该铁路是继印尼雅万高铁后,第二条以成套中国标准、中国技术和装备建设的海外项目,不止是轨道修建,还使用了来自中国的车辆、身份证实名购票系统以及进站安检系统。

中老铁路同时运行客车和货车,其中动车组列车D887“中国复兴号”和D888“老挝澜沧江号”分别从昆明南站和万象站双向对开,车上广播中文、老挝语和英语。

万荣站的CR200J列车。

高铁车厢,带有老挝语和中文双语标志

中老铁路开通后,一定程度上带火了西双版纳、琅勃拉邦等城市的旅游产业,不过更加惹人注目的影响,是它方便了中国和泰国之间的货物运输。

十二 |


为什么中老铁路利好了中国跟泰国间的物流业呢?

因为老挝首都万象是世界上离边境最近的首都,准确一点说,万象就位于老挝与泰国的边境线上,和泰国廊开市只隔着一条湄公河。

历史上万象和廊开原本是一座隔江而建的双子城,1893年,暹罗(泰国)被迫割让万象给法国,万象由此成为一座法属殖民地城市。

十三 |


换言之,中老铁路实际上已经修到了泰国家门口。

中老铁路上的主要城市。

老挝是一个人口只有750万人的内陆国,经济相对落后,但泰国却是一个人口7200万、经济蓬勃发展的地区大国。

十四 |


中老铁路开通后,泰国方面积极利用铁路运输缩短时间的优势,把大量水果出口到中国。

泰国商务部公布的数字显示,2023年1-5月泰国榴莲出口到中国比去年同期增加58%,2022年泰国榴莲更是创下70万吨的出口新高,其中90%销往中国。

泰商务部目前采取了一系列便利措施,鼓励其国内的蔬菜、水果利用铁路运输抢占中国市场。

横跨湄公河的泰老第一友谊大桥。老挝经济领域长期依赖泰国,与泰国间的人员、货物通行十分便利;不过其安全领域则受越南保护,老挝人民党和老挝人民军曾经是越共的分支,直到今天都有大批老挝将领到越南接受训练。

十五 |


中老铁路的开通进一步加快了中泰铁路的建设进度,根据泰国铁道局的消息,如果一切顺利,中泰铁路有望赶在2029年全线开通。

中泰铁路是泰国首条标准轨高速铁路,使用中国技术,设计最高时速250公里,将在老挝首都万象实现与中老铁路的连接。

正所谓好事多磨,铁路建设期间中泰双方就一系列问题进行了深度沟通和博弈。

比如:泰方希望中国将高铁建设技术、运营维护技术和其他相关任务在一定期限内完全转移给泰国国家铁路公司。

再比如:泰方规定建筑承包商必须是在泰国境内注册的法人,以聘用泰方劳工为主,建筑材料也优先使用泰国国内材料等等。

虽然存在种种困难,但中泰铁路的意义十分重大,这将是中国首次用高标准铁路无缝隙连接起一个7000多万人口的地区大国。

泰国曼谷高铁总站(已完工)。曼谷是一座人口超过千万的大都市,建设中的中泰高速铁路将采用中国中车生产的复兴号CR300AF型电力动车组,最高时速300公里,在泰国境内以250公里时速运营。

文章最后,让我们以一个更加宏大的视角来审视一下泛亚铁路。

自大航海时代以来,海洋霸权相对陆地霸权一直占据着地缘优势,而这种地缘优势的根本即在于以海运为主体的国际运输体系。

尽管大家看地图会觉得中国与俄罗斯、印度、越南、缅甸、巴基斯坦等众多国家接壤,做起贸易来似乎应该很容易,其实不然。

十六 |


俄罗斯的核心领土位于欧洲,中国想运货物到俄罗斯得通过海运绕地球好大一个圈。

印度同理,虽然中印贸易额有个每年1000多亿美元,但99.9%都是走南海-马六甲-印度洋运输的,通过中印边境实现的贸易很少很少。

即大陆国家看起来领土接壤,但却并没有多少人员货物往来,是一个个孤立的个体。

究其原因,主要在于陆路(航空)基建与运输能力的限制。

然而可以预见的是,这种局面终将随着技术、生产力的进步逐渐发生改变。

能源领域,中俄油气管道、中哈油气管道等已全面铺开并发挥作用。

货物领域,虽然中欧班列仍不能跟海运相比,但它毕竟在成长中,完成了从0到1的突破,对一些高附加值产品(对运费不敏感)的运输带来积极影响。

十七 |


再比如中吉乌铁路、中国-东盟铁路等,随着建设技术的提升和建设成本下降,总有一天会实现。

六十年前修成昆铁路费多大力气,今天修条铁路又费多大力气,如果按比例换算至六十年后,那将不得了的。


中国古代,京杭大运河曾是南北黄金水道,扬州、淮安等城市因航运而兴起,然而到了今天,大运河在全国货物流通领域的作用已经可以忽略不计。

同样的道理,尽管未来若干年间海运仍将是主力,但它的作用正一点点被铁路、管道、航空等形式所取代。

十八 |


展望未来,《中国的地缘上签》就是从周边开始用基础设施联通和贸易运输的形式整合亚欧大陆上的城市与资源,这将是一项漫长、枯燥、充满挑战但意义深远的工作。

十九 |

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